💰Scoring and Awards

Individual forecasts are scored on three parameters:

• How precise the forecast was - specifically, the value submitted on the chart for vs. the target. For this, we use a measure related to the Mean Absolute Scaled Error (MASE) technique.

• How far in advance the forecast was given. The further from the auction close, the more points are received for accuracy.

This is a multiplier applied to the precision score based on the time between the forecast and the auction closing time. The bigger the difference, the higher the multiplier. Thus, forecasts submitted as soon as the auction opens (30 days before closing) are worth 100%, this drops to 90% on day two and then decays towards approximately 20% the day before the auction closes. Early (and correct) birds get higher scores.

• How far away the vote was from the consensus. A maverick bonus! The further the Main Average is at the time of your vote from it, the bigger the bonus. You still have to be correct for this to work.